Analyse: db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam (USD)

Fundamentale Analyse

Over the past three years, Vietnamese equities, as measured by the MSCI Vietnam, have significantly underperformed (17.9%) other Asian emerging markets (31%), as measured by the MSCI EM Asia, on an annualised basis. The db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF has fared even worse with annualised returns equal to 0.5% over the past three years. The underperformance against the MSCI Vietnam is primarily due to the ETF's inability to achieve exposure to the broader Vietnamese market.

Vietnam first began to sow the seeds of economic growth in 1986 with efforts to encourage the development of private businesses and foreign investment. The liberalisation of Vietnam's foreign trade policy continued into the current century as the country signed a bilateral trade agreement with the US in 2000 and officially joined the WTO in 2007. Inflows of foreign capital and private enterprise formation have helped Vietnam slowly transition from a centrally-planned agrarian economy to a more viable, export-oriented economy. Undoubtedly, these policies amongst others were instrumental in spurring the last 25 years of economic growth, culminating in a stable 6-8% GDP growth rate since 2002. At the start of 2011, GDP growth faltered from a three-year peak of 7.34% in Q4-2010 down to a three-year low of 5.57% in Q1-2011. GDP growth accelerated throughout the year finishing at a 6.1% pace in Q4-2011. Following the announcement of this figure, HSBC forecasted Vietnam's 2012 GDP growth to stay relatively steady at 5.7%. 

Currently, Vietnam is dealing with the highest inflation rate in Asia at a daunting 16.4% per year--albeit lower than its nearby peak level of 23% reached in August 2011. Perhaps most worrisome for investors is the inconsistency of Vietnamese monetary policy in dealing with their escalating inflation. In February 2011, Vietnam unveiled Resolution 11, which was aimed at fighting inflation and supporting its currency with contractionary monetary and fiscal policies. Following the announcement, the State Bank of Vietnam raised rates incrementally to eventually reach 15% by July 2011 from the previous 7% at the start of November 2010. After July, however, Vietnam began to inexplicably cut rates. The IMF and economists criticised the Vietnamese government for making confusing and contradictory statements about the direction of rates. Following these criticisms, Vietnam responded by raising their benchmark refinancing rate back up to 15%, which is where it stands at the time of this writing. To make matters even more confusing, Vietnam's inflation-rate has been steadily declining since August 2011 and many market watchers are expecting another rate cut soon. If rates are cut, Vietnamese equities could get a boost, but investors should be cautious as economists suggest that Vietnam's central bank is quickly losing credibility with its unpredictable rates decisions.

In the short-term, investor sentiment may be buoyed by a strong Japanese yen and worries about high labour costs in China. However, these competitive advantages will likely be offset by Vietnam's financial instability, massive trade and budget deficits, and low foreign currency reserves. 

Indexkonstruktion

The FTSE Vietnam Index is a sub-index of the FTSE Vietnam All-share Index and represents those companies (circa 20-30) that have sufficient foreign ownership availability. At the time of this writing, the index has 26 constituents. Component stocks have to be listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and those that are seen to have no ‘accurate and reliable’ pricing available will be removed from the index. The index uses the last quoted price for purposes of end-of-the day calculation and is reviewed quarterly. The weight of individual constituents is capped at 15% of the index’s total value and to be included, securities have to pass a liquidity screening. The 3 month average daily traded value is calculated for all constituents and those not turning over 40% of the 3-month average traded value of the FTSE Vietnam index will be excluded. The 3-month average traded value is calculated by multiplying closing prices by total daily traded volume. Once a security has been included and its turnover falls below the 20% level, the constituent will be removed. Furthermore, component stocks that have a free float of at least 5% but not more than 15% will be deleted if their full market capitalisation is less than VND25,000bn or if they are ranked below the 10th place by full market cap at the time of review. Constituents with less than 5% free float will be deleted as well. Finally, securities with less than 2% foreign ownership availability will not be eligible for the index.

Fondskonstruktion

The db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF uses swap-based replication to track the FTSE Vietnam Index. The fund uses a funded swap, meaning db x-trackers delivers the cash received from investors to the swap counterparty (Deutsche Bank AG). Deutsche Bank in return contracts to pay db x-trackers the index return, as well as pledging collateral to the db x-trackers account at its custodian (State Street bank). The value of the collateral pledged to the fund is usually maintained within a range of 105-120% the fund’s net asset value. The swap is reset when exposure to Deutsche Bank reaches 5% of the fund’s NAV and/or whenever there is a creation or redemption. The db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF reinvests dividends. db x-trackers publishes the details of the fund’s collateral basket on a daily basis on its web site. The fund is available in four currency denominations: Euros, Pounds Sterling, US Dollars and Swiss Francs. The fund trades on Euronext Paris, Borsa Italiana, Deutsche Börse, and the London Stock Exchange.

Gebühren

The fund levies a total expense ratio (TER) equal to 0.85%.

Alternativen

As of writing, the db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF is the only ETF tracking Vietnamese equities domiciled in Europe. For more diversified exposure to Asian equities investors could consider the db x-trackers MSCI EM Asia ETF. This fund uses synthetic replication and levies a total expense ratio of 0.65%. The reference index favours China (30%), followed by Korea (25%) and Taiwan (18%). However, Vietnamese equities are not included in this index.